2012: A key year in the lithium wars
Ready for conversion
By as early as 2014, according to recent analysis, the winners of the automotive battery industry might have already won and revenues will rule.
Within the next few years a number of lithium-powered hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs will hit the road. Initially, most will be low-volume vehicles. Consequently, sales of NiMH hybrids will continue to dominate for some time, unless of course Toyota converts the Prius into a lithium hybrid.
Considering the importance of lithium, how long can Toyota wait before committing to lithium for its flag ship Toyota Prius? Even if Toyota’s lithium-powered plug-in Prius tops plug-in sales by 2014, that might not be enough for industry-leading revenues. Of course, Toyota’s recent lithium investments and battery partnerships hint that such complacency is unlikely.
Moreover, Ford has started to sound a lot like Toyota on hybrid vehicles. By 2018 it’s possible that Ford could actually begin to challenge Toyota’s hybrid sale’s crown, and Ford’s lithium commitment appears set to begin in 2012, with lithium-powered conventional hybrids the key.
When the plug-in Prius goes on sale in late 2011, I expect lithium-powered conventional Prius hybrids won’t be far behind. If not, maybe Toyota will need some kaizen lessons from Ford.
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This will be a horrible year for American Auto makers. GM is over-reaching with the 40 mile charged battery. 10 Miles on the charge would get its big fat foot in the door and not overcharge Americans for new cars. Obama’s Nazi Control over GM will spell doom for the Democratic Party for years to come. They should have made the NiMH Hybrids into Plug-Ins for $100 tops. They still could do it if they had the courage to tell Obama to go to Hell.