CERA: Canadian Oil Sands Poised to Become the Top Source of Crude Imports to the US in 2010; Could Contribute Up To 36% of US Oil and Refined Products Imports by 2030

Growth of production of Canadian oil sands. Source: IHS CERA. Click to enlarge.

The Canadian oil sands are now poised to become the number one source of US crude oil imports in 2010, according to new research from the IHS CERA Canadian Oil Sands Dialogue. In addition, oil sands imports could ultimately increase to a range of 20% to 36% of US oil and refined product imports by 2030 from the 2009 level of 8%, according to the Dialogue’s first report, The Role of Canadian Oil Sands in US Oil Supply.

IHS CERA’s earlier comparison of 11 publicly available life-cycle analysis studies found that fuel produced from oil sands mining has average well-to–retail pump greenhouse gas emissions 1.3 times the average for fuel consumed in the United States. Similarly, fuel produced from oil sands utilizing SAGD (steam assisted gravity drainage, an in situ production technique) has average
well–to–retail pump GHG emissions about 1.7 times larger than the average fuel
consumed in the United States.

On a well-to-wheels basis the majority of emissions are created when the fuel is combusted in a vehicle, IHS CERA notes. The well-to-retail pump part of the emissions (before vehicle use) accounts for some 20-30% of the total life-cycle GHG emissions, the company says. Its calculations thus point to total well-to-wheels greenhouse gas emissions from oil sands—from extraction and processing through combustion of its refined products—that are approximately 5 to 15% higher than that from fuel from the “average” crude oil processed in the US. (That WTW range is lower than that determined by a number of other studies, IHS CERA notes.)

The Canadian oil sands are not alone as a higher GHG source of crude, IHS CERA points out.

…they are part of a group of higher carbon-intensity crudes consumed within the United States, including Venezuelan heavy crude oil; Nigerian crude oils; and crude oils from mature assets that require steam for enhanced oil recovery such as California heavy oil