Could Legalizing Marijuana Help Balance the Budget?

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A much more optimistic estimate suggests using the entire premium currently commanded by drug dealers (the amount above the actual cost of production and distribution) as the tax rate, a nearly 400% rate of return for the government.  This tax rate would be around $7 per half gram of marijuana, yielding a potential total tax revenue of $154 billion on the 11 billion grams of marijuana we estimated being sold in the US.  (Assuming that (a) our assumptions about the amount of marijuana sold in the US currently are accurate, (b) that there is negligible effects on the amount of marijuana sold after legalization and taxation, and (c) that we can impose and collect taxes at that high of a level.)

But wait, that’s not all; there are also costs associated with keeping nonviolent marijuana users incarcerated and spending money for police and other services to capture them in the first place.  Again, it’s hard to say for certain how much these costs would change if marijuana was legalized (would these resources no longer be needed at all, or end up shifted to other uses, fighting different drugs, for instance), but our friend Miron claims that we could save $7.7 billion on enforcement costs ($2.4 billion at the national level, $5.3 billion at the state and local levels).

As To Balancing the Budget…

We now know how much we can expect to generate by legalizing and taxing marijuana , around $13 billion total (from Miron’s highest figures; about $5 billion if we use his low figures and just look at the federal government income) or as much as $154 billion (with a much more aggressive tax); is that enough to cover the budget deficit?  Not even close.  The US budget deficit for 2010 was 1.17 trillion (that’s Trillion with a T-R); even if the $154 billion figure is accurate (and it seems quite high from where I sit, especially compared with our other estimate), it won’t even be enough to get the deficit under $1 trillion, let alone provide a silver bullet to balance the budget without spending cuts or other taxes.

This doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t consider legalizing marijuana; a potential boost to federal, state and local pocketbooks to the tune of $5-13 billion dollars (perhaps much, much more) is certainly a help.  There’s also plenty of non-income related reasons to seriously consider legalization (as several states have or might in the future); from providing more freedom from government intrusion in our private lives to decreasing street crime, the advantages of legalizing marijuana seem to pretty handily outweigh the disadvantages.

Disclaimer: As you can probably guess, I’m pretty steadfastly in favor of legalizing marijuana (and most drugs, for that matter), for reasons of economics, personal freedom, and minimizing government where possible.  I do not partake in any illegal drugs (or much of legal intoxicants like alcohol, for that matter), so this column is based entirely on my thoughts and feelings rather than potential personal gain if legalization becomes law.  If you are looking for a good rebuttal to the arguments for legalization, including the ones I’ve presented here, this article is a good place to start.

Should the US legalize and tax marijuana, even if it’s unlikely to be a major factor in balancing the federal budget?  Are the benefits worth the problems that could arise?  Should the potential economics of legalization be a major consideration when discussing legalization, or should money issues be trumped by health, safety and moral concerns?

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