Study Finds Prolonged Low Solar Activity Will Not Offset Global Warming

Solar activity influences Earth’s temperature, and it has been suggested that the current period of low solar activity will lead into a more prolonged period of low activity, a new “grand minimum” similar to the Maunder minimum that lasted from 1645 to 1715, coinciding with the Little Ice Age.

To determine the potential effects of a prolonged period of low solar activity, researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany) ran a series of simulations using a coupled climate model that reproduces the cooling during past solar minima.

In a paper published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the authors report that a new grand minimum would produce only a minimal amount of cooling—no more than 0.3 degrees Celsius (0.54 degrees Fahrenheit) in 2100. This potential temperature decrease is much smaller than the increase expected from human-induced warming.

Furthermore, any cooling effect would be temporary, since the period of low solar activity would last no more than a few decades. The authors conclude that a new grand minimum cannot offset global warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions.

Resources

• Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf (2010) On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth. Geophysical Research Letters doi: 10.1029/2010GL042710