Voters Strongly Favor Non-Incumbent GOP Newcomers in Midterm Elections

More than any other class, including Republicans in general, voters have a decided preference for non-incumbent GOP challengers. Moreover, three in four believe an influx of new members would improve Congress, says Gallup.

Please consider Americans Most Likely to Favor GOP Newcomers for Congress

Suppose you had a choice among each of the following four types of candidates for Congress. Which one would you be most likely to vote for?

Republican serving in Congress – 15%
Republican who has not served in Congress – 38%
Democrat who has not served in Congress – 16%
Democrat serving in Congress – 24%
Other – 3%
No Opinion – 4%

Overall, a majority of Americans prefer a Republican candidate (regardless of experience) to a Democrat, 53% to 40%. And a majority also prefer a non-incumbent (regardless of party affiliation) to an incumbent, 54% to 39%.

The fact that Americans who prefer a Republican candidate want one who is new to Congress suggests that these voters want both GOP control of Congress and the new perspectives that come from members with no prior Washington experience. Americans who favor Democratic candidates, on the other hand, apparently are more satisfied with the type of experienced representatives now in Congress.

One would naturally expect Democrats to prefer Democratic candidates, and Republicans to prefer Republican candidates, and that is the case when looking at the data by party. But partisans’ preferences for incumbents versus challengers seem to be influenced by their knowledge that the Democrats currently have a majority in Congress, and thus, more Democrats will be defending House seats this fall. Democrats are more likely to prefer a Democrat who is in Congress to a Democrat who is not, and Republicans are more likely to prefer a Republican outside of Congress to one who is currently serving there. Independents also show a strong preference for Republican non-incumbents.

Strong Anti-Democratic Sentiment

Gallup reports Anti-Democratic Sentiment Aids GOP Lead in 2010 Vote

The Republicans’ lead in the congressional generic ballot over the past month may be due as much to voters’ rejecting the Democrats as embracing the Republicans. Among voters backing Republican candidates, 44% say their preference is “more a vote against the Democratic candidate,” while 48% say it is “more a vote for the Republican candidate.”

The 44% of Republican voters who say they are voting more against the Democratic candidate exceeds the level of negative voting against the incumbent party that Gallup measured in the 1994 and 2006 elections, when party control shifted (from the Democrats to the Republicans after the 1994 elections and from the Republicans to the Democrats after the 2006 elections).

GOP Holds Huge Edge In Turnout Related Question

In our third poll topic, Gallup shows Republicans Hold Wide Lead in Key Voter Turnout Measure

Two months before this year’s midterm congressional elections, Gallup finds 54% of Republicans, compared with 30% of Democrats, already saying they have given “quite a lot of” or “some” thought to the contests.

Republicans’ current level of thought about the elections, from Gallup Daily tracking conducted Aug. 23-29, matches or exceeds that found in October/November of the last three midterm years