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Good News: The Great Recession is Over; Bad News: It Doesn’t Feel Like It

By Mike Shedlock on 09/20/2010 – 10:06 am PDTOne Comment

According to the NBER, at long last the great recession is officially over. Bloomberg reports Worst U.S. Recession Since 1930s Ended in June 2009.

The longest and deepest U.S. recession since the Great Depression ended in June 2009, lasting 18 months, the National Bureau of Economic Research said.

“The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007,” the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based bureau’s business cycle dating group said today in a statement. “The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.” The committee is the accepted arbiter of when recessions start and end.

“The economy has begun to move forward, albeit at a slow, disappointing pace,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. “It’s a recovery that feels fragile, and still raises questions about the risks to its sustainability.” The odds of the economy falling back into another recession are about 25 percent, Kasman said.

Over 50 and Never Working Again

The New York Times comments on the Fears of Never Working Again

Of the 14.9 million unemployed, more than 2.2 million are 55 or older. Nearly half of them have been unemployed six months or longer, according to the Labor Department. The unemployment rate in the group — 7.3 percent — is at a record, more than double what it was at the beginning of the latest recession.

According to a Gallup poll in April, more than a third of people not yet retired plan to work beyond age 65, compared with just 12 percent in 1995.

Older workers who lose their jobs could pose a policy problem if they lose their ability to be self-sufficient

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One Comment »

  • I’m certain that the 9.6% of Americans who are unemployed (U3) and the 16% of workers who are part of the U6 broader statistic would agree; the recession is definitely in the past….for those who actually have jobs. This recession could not have ended at a better time. With the United States public debt reaching $13.4 trillion, the American government could not afford to increase stimulus to spend its way out of a recession that was any lengthier. Fortunately, our the interest on our public debt is still smaller than the GDP of the top 22 countries in the world. Here’s a look at the most recent debt numbers:

    I wonder how the government will be able to spend its way out of the next downturn?

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